Here's a sobering stat: never has the Twin Cities hit a high above 50 degrees after November 23. Depressing, I know. These pre-winter cold fronts can be brutal!...and it's not unusual to see a 20-30 degree temperature drop in 24 hours. The snow on Thursday signaled the passage of an arctic front that brings the coldest air in 9 months!
Expect a temporary end to the freeze thaw cycle. Trails should be in good condition as temps stay below freezing this weekend.
Saturday: Frigid, yet sunny. H: 16° Wind: NW 10 (wind chill: 3°)
Saturday Night: Clear and cold. L: 5° Wind: Calm
Sunday: Warmer. Increasing clouds. H: 26° L: 20° Wind: SW 5-10
Monday: Partly cloudy. Dry. H: 36° L: 22° Wind: NW 10
Tuesday: Mostly sunny. H: 33° L: 15° Wind: NW 7
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. H: 28° L: 20° Wind: SE 4
My co-worker snapped this picture from his backyard in Bone Lake. Any slush on our area lakes has since melted with what little warmth we had this week. The ice in, therefore, has yet to occur on many lakes.
Thinking about purchasing some studs this year? I pulled the trigger last winter and had a blast riding the icy Chain of Lakes. I was instinctively cautious when riding two tires on sheer ice but studded tires grip exceptionally well.
The Lake Calhoun median date for ice in (when ice first forms and stays on the lake through the season) is December 6 to December 12.
Shorter Fatbike Season?
New research says "dirty" snow is to blame for accelerating snow melt. Here's a snippet from the study:
During recent years, desert dust has been settling thick and dark on the snowpack in the northern Rocky Mountain headwaters of the Colorado River, and snowpack is melting out as many as six weeks earlier than it did in the 1800s. Snow dusted with dark particles absorbs more of the Sun’s rays and melts faster than clean snow.
While this research pertains to the southwestern U.S. the same could be said for the Midwest in the future if climate scientists are right about global warming.
Seems like everyone has bike fever these days. Nick Frey, founder of Boo Bikes, recently stopped by KCWI Good Day Morning show in Des Moines to show off the new AluBoo bikes.
Fatbikes have become immensely popular, but not without controversy. Trail sharing is the number one problem facing fatbike riders these days. Gary Sjoquist, QBP Advocacy Director, has sent out an open letter that addresses the rising fame of fatbikes and ways to share the trail during the winter season.
My guess is that we have a near normal winter season. The typical indicators that help decipher a winter forecast, however, are more obscure this year. For example, without the presence of a La Nina or El Nino, the winter outlook is harder to predict. Here's what we do expect:
- No strong long-term signal as to what this winter will be like.
- Will be more affected by short-term signals like the Arctic Oscillation
- Little drought relief in the southwestern U.S.
- Drought to expand in the southeastern U.S.
November Severe Outbreak
This pic indicates the path of the EF-4 tornado that tore through the town of Washington, IL last Sunday. The open field clearly shows the classic corkscrew motion a tornado creates. While severe weather in November isn't too unusual, this particular outbreak was record breaking. Here are some of the stats:
- Washington, IL tornado was the first EF-4 tornado in the state in November.
-Illinois: Since 1986, 194 tornado warnings were issued...101 of those warnings occurred on Sunday.
-23 tornadoes were confirmed in Indiana, 3rd most in state history.
From 1950-2013, there has only been one tornado reported in the month of November in Minnesota. From the Minnesota Climate Working Group:
The latest (tornado) in any year (was) on November 16, 1931, east of Maple Plain. Historically and statistically, June is the month of greatest frequency with July not far behind. May has the third greatest frequency, followed closely by August. Nearly 3/4 of all tornadoes in Minnesota have occurred during the three months of May (15%), June (37%), and July (25%).
My heart goes out to those affected by severe weather so close to the holiday season.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story