Winter weather forecasting is hardly every black and white. Too many factors can easily tip the balance into that grey area. Rarely does the general public demand a rain forecast to be accurate down to the hundredths of an inch. No big deal if the rainfall forecast calls for 0.25" and it rains 0.37", right?
When it comes to snow, however, stuff starts getting serious. People expect an accurate snowfall forecast right down to the inch. Nailing down that precise number can be extremely difficult. Think about this...just 0.1" of liquid water equals 1" of snow when assuming a 10:1 ratio. Better get that liquid precipitation forecast right, not to mention a plethora of other factors like the water content (wet vs heavy snow) and atmospheric temperatures. This is the kind of forecasting difficulties that can keep a meteorologist up at night.
Our first (measurable) snow event in the metro has occurred this week. The first one is always tricky because the ground is still warm from summer and can wreak havoc on snowfall totals. Tough forecast but I'm going for 3 inches of slush by Wednesday morning.
Tuesday: Rain changes to snow Tuesday evening. ~5 hours of snow Tuesday night...some heavy at times. H: 41 Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday Night: Snow, some heavy at times, ending after midnight. L: 28 Wind: N 9
Wednesday: Sunny. H: 40 L: 25 Wind: NW 10
Thursday: Mostly sunny. Dry. H: 41 L: 27 Wind: W 5-10
Friday: Increasing clouds, flurries/sprinkles mix. H: 44 L: 35 Wind: SW 5-10
Saturday: Light rain/snow mix. Clearing overnight & cold. H: 42 L: 25 Wind: SW 5
Sunday: Mostly cloudy. H: 38 L: 30 Wind: S 2-4
Last winter of 2012-2013 was long and snowy but the winter of 2011-2012 was fairly mild. Honestly, this upcoming winter outlook is a bit of a toss up. The average winter snow for the metro is between 40-50 inches. Get the fatbikes ready...Minnesota winter is right around the corner!
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story