After a lukewarm Friday, the flood gates of cold, Canadian air open back up to keep conditions cool through the weekend. Next week looks rather active as two storms are poised to impact Minnesota. The first storm arrives Tuesday and brings the possibility of accumulating snow to southern Minnesota. The second storm will be warmer and arrives on Halloween (Thursday) to bring mainly rain to the metro.
Saturday: Blustery north wind. H: 45 Wind: NW 15-20
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Wind subsides. L: 30 Wind: NW 5-10
Sunday: A bit warmer for the Season Championship. H: 53 L: 32 Wind: SW 5-10
Monday: A dry day. H: 45 L: 32 Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday: Rain, snow mix begins to spread across s'rn MN. Minor snow accum ~1" H: 39 L: 31 Wind: NE 10-15
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, break in between storms. H: 44 L: 34 Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday: A cold, windy rain ending in light snow Friday morning. H: 49 L: 34 Wind: W 10
Friday: Cloudy and getting colder. H: 44 L: 30 Wind: NW 5-10
Predicting the weather is not an exact science...it never will be. While our computer models do a pretty damn good job at showing the future, they will never, ever be able to precisely mimic our atmosphere.
Computer models differ in which initial observation and equations they use. For example, the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) relies heavily on cloud cover observations. The ECMWF accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy a week in advance, so I tend to lean more towards this model.
A meteorologist likes to see models agree. This gives us a high confidence forecast. Unfortunately they don't always agree, like in Tuesday's situation. The ECMWF model (lower) shows a storm track further south, thus giving southern MN more snow potential.
Either way, the area will see snow but how much snow is still a little fuzzy.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story