A solid base of snow for fatbiking is getting harder to come by in November. Our weather has been looking (and feeling) more like that of the Pacific Northwest. Persistent clouds with the occasional light rain and/or snow can be expected through Thursday. Very little, if any, snow accumulation on the MORC trail system this week.
Hail in November? Yes, it can happen and it did Monday across the metro. Hail was reported one other time this month. Unusual, and for a time of year we typically associate more with snow than hail!
Western Minnesota will be closer to the cold air and more likely to see 1-2 inches of snow this week. The Twin Cities will warm enough during the day for light rain, yet experience a chance over to light snow overnight as the temperature dips below freezing.
Early December Cold Blast
A stagnant global weather pattern has kept unseasonably warm air in place across North America and Minnesota. Where is all the cold air? Over Asia where the jet stream has dipped south allowing unseasonably cold air to overtake parts of Europe. With mild air lingering over Minnesota early next week the next storm looks to bring mainly rain.
Minneapolis may start looking like Seattle. An extended period of clouds and showers will last well into next week. Total precipitation may approach an inch in spots. Be sure to check trail conditions.
A winter storm developing over Colorado will bring another accumulating snow Tuesday-Wednesday. The Twin Cities, however, will be on the edge of a wintry mix. There is a good chance the cold air could be deep enough over the area for all snow as the storm tracks across Iowa Tuesday night. Come Wednesday the singletrack may need to be packed down.
So this is what November feels like! Snowflakes fly and the mercury drops. Let's face it, we've been spoiled. Come this weekend we'll be wishing for those highs in the 60s to return. Wind chill Saturday morning in the teens for the MN Cyclocross State Championship in Crystal. Certainly a shock to the system. Our bodies simply aren't acclimated to the cold...not yet anyway.
Total precipitation (rain and snow) Friday will amount to nearly an inch in the Twin Cities. The ground is not yet frozen so any riding on soggy soil could damage the trail. Be sure to check the latest trail conditions before you head out on a ride!
Cold moderates a bit next week with light rain Tuesday. Luckily, no significant storms brewing for the Thanksgiving holiday.
Our fair weather honeymoon ends this weekend. Temperatures snap right back to November standards with highs Saturday and Sunday in the 30s. Brrr.
A solid 30 degree temperature change will occur Friday night with the passage of a strong cold front. At first a warm wind Friday propels temperatures into the 60s but by Saturday a cold north wind dives temperatures quickly into the 30s. And, yes, someone in Minnesota is going to get some snow.
Heavy snow is projected to fall north of the storm track whereas a wintry mix or all rain falls south of the low pressure. The odds are greater that northern Minnesota will see enough snow to break out the fat tires.
ChANCE OF 4" sNOW OR gREATER
COGGS trails may get the first taste of winter with a few inches while the Twin Cities may see a slushy inch, if that. The accuracy of this snowfall forecast lies within the exact storm track. A track further south could bring a heavier band of snow into the Twin Cities. It bears some watching.
Typically November is one of the cloudiest month of the year for Minnesota. Not this year! Unusually warm and dry weather conditions continue well into the weekend. Maybe a sprinkle on Tuesday. A stronger storm arrives late next week bringing mainly rain and a big cool down NEXT weekend.
Sunday morning will be one the coldest yet this season. Some locations will dip very close to freezing which will jeopardize the current streak for the latest first freeze on record in the Twin Cities. It'll be close! Most models, however, are banking on the breeze to stay up preventing low temperatures from really bottoming out.
November 2016 could be our 15th consecutive month with above normal temperatures. Already temperatures this month have been trending 14° to 18° above the normal.
Still with a potential La Nina this winter colder and snowier than normal weather may impact the Twin Cities.
I'm pinching myself. Holding my breath, waiting for the other shoe to drop. Weather like this in November is a treat. Incredibly enough the Twin Cities have yet to drop below 32 degrees making it the longest stretch on record for the latest first freeze. This tranquil weather pattern persists with the next solid chance of a rain being a week away.
We won't be hitting 32 degrees (the freezing mark) anytime soon. 2016 has seen the longest growing season (over 207 days) in Twin Cities history!
Weather records go back to the late 1800s. In looking at the mean low temperature during the period from July 1 to November 4, 2016 was the warmest such period on record. Amazing!
Truly cold air stays bottled up in northern Canada...for now. Enjoy this warm weather honeymoon for the inevitable chill is bound to come.
Wow! A 7-day in early November doesn't get much better than this! Great opportunity to slay some singletrack with temperatures 15 degrees above normal through the weekend.
October 2016 had an average temperature of 51 degrees in Minneapolis/St.Paul, 4 degrees above normal. This was the 13th consecutive month of above normal temperatures. This was also the first October since 1958 where the Twin Cities did not reach a low of 32 degrees. We are well on our way to having the latest freeze ever on record.
The record latest date (as shown above) for the first 32 degree temperature is November 7, 1900. The November outlook continues to favor warmer than normal conditions for the Twin Cities and most of the country.
Conditions are favorable for the development of La Nina in the equatorial Pacific Ocean this winter. What does that mean for the Twin Cities? A good possibility that conditions will be colder than last winter with temperatures at or slightly below normal. Confidence is also high in above normal snowfall this winter.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story