Ride happy, indeed. A quick-hitting Alberta Clipper freshened up the snow pack with 2-3 inches on Wednesday. But the packed tracks may soon turn to slush on Saturday as conditions warm above freezing during the day. Concerned about icy conditions developing as a harsh freeze will occur after the melting. Temperatures barely get out of the teens Sunday-Monday.
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. H: 38° Wind: S 7
Saturday Night: Arctic front arrives. L: 13°
Sunday: Decreasing clouds, turning colder. H: 15° L: 1° Wind chill: -4° to -7°
Monday: Clear, cold. H: 9° L: 6° Wind: NW 5
Tuesday: Warmer. H: 30° L: 15° Wind: SW 10-15
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. H: 27° L: 19° Wind: CALM
Lightning Forecast: The relationship between the sun's changing magnetic field with that of Earth's may one day help to predict lightning strikes. Scientists in this new study "propose that galactic cosmic rays are channeled to different locations around the globe, which can trigger lightning in already charged-up thunderclouds". Being able to predict lightning strikes in the future could be a huge breakthrough in weather safety.
For the busiest travel holiday of the year, Minnesota's weather remains rather tame. A quick burst of snow Wednesday morning could freshen up what little snowpack is left. A pattern shift takes place this weekend with temps warming close to 40° resulting is rapidly changing trail conditions.
Tuesday: Increasing clouds. H: 26 Wind: SE 4
Tuesday Night: Snow showers. Best chance of accumulation south of MN River Valley. L: 19
Wednesday: Cloudy. H: 26 L: 7 Wind: NE 7
Thanksgiving: Cold. H: 14 L: 10 Wind: CALM
Friday: Snow showers. H: 31 L: 25 Wind: W 2-4
Saturday: Warmer. H: 39 L: 14 Wind: SW 10
Sunday: Early morning snow showers. Colder. H: 19 L: 11 Wind: NW 10
Nationally, last Tuesday morning was the coldest in November since 1976-38 years ago! All 50 states saw freezing temperatures on Tuesday. This early cold wave ignited severe lake effect snow in upstate New York with isolated pockets of 80-85 inches total. Puts our Minnesota weather into perspective, huh?
But now the tides have turned and we're going to spend a few days above freezing. This subtle (and in some cases welcomed) thaw continues into early next week. Soil conditions, however, are not yet frozen so the littlest bit of warming will make the trails mush. Take care when heading out on the trails this weekend.
Can't escape the cold for long. By Thanksgiving, we're back in the ice box. Snow and strong winds develop Monday-Tuesday. An inch to two of new snow look to be a pretty good bet.
Saturday: Cloudy, mild. H: 38 Wind: SW 10
Saturday Night: Cloudy, not as cold. L: 32
Sunday: Cloudy, sprinkles? H: 42 L: 24 Wind: W 5-10
Monday: Colder, blustery. Snow showers. H: 24 L: 15 Wind: NW 15-20
Tuesday: Partly cloudy. H: 26 L: 17 Wind: NW 7
Wednesday: Snow showers. H: 27 L: 11 Wind: NW 10
Thanksgiving: Sunny and cold. H: 19 L: 9 Wind: N 5-10
We see very little relief from the numbing cold this week. Temperatures are still expected to trend 20 degrees colder than average for this time of year. Aside from the occasional snow shower, overall weather conditions remain quiet.
Tuesday: Mostly cloudy, not as windy. H: 15 Wind: W 10-15
Tuesday night: Snow showers. Total: 0.3" L: 12
Wednesday: Slightly "warmer". Cloudy. H: 22 L: 9 Wind: WNW 10-15 G 20
Thursday: Cold sunshine. H: 16 L: 2 Wind: W 7
Friday: Sunny. H: 23 L: 16 Wind: SE 2-4
Saturday: Snow showers. H: 35 L: 27 Wind: S 10
Sunday: Snow showers. H: 40 L: 28 Wind: SE 4
With this extended cold, the ground soil is getting close to frozen. Soon enough, the snow will be nice and compact along the our singletrack trails.
The longest stretch of sub-freezing weather goes back to the pioneer days when St. Paul had 98 consecutive days below 32 degrees. While we won't even come close to that number, you can expect it to stay freezing through next week. Hang tight, a thaw (albeit subtle) arrives around Thanksgiving.
We aren't the only ones suffering in the snow and cold. Ishpeming, MI (Marquette County) received an eye-popping 42.5" of snow recently. And now the arctic air has flooding the Ohio Valley with temperatures 30 degrees colder than earlier this week.
Weekend Snow: Another snow event looks to track across southern Minnesota Saturday. Computer guidance has been all over the place with this one (much like the last one) but we can be sure of accumulating snow, especially south of the MN River Valley. A mere inch of snow across the south metro looks to be the best bet.
Friday: Sunny. Wind chill in the teens. H: 21 Wind: NWN 4
Friday Night: Clear and cold. L: 6
Saturday: Snow, especially s'rn MN. Dusting-1 inch. H: 25 L: 10 Wind: SW 4
Sunday: Mostly cloudy, snow showers. H: 22 L: 11 Wind: SW 10-15
Monday: Partly sunny. Wind chill: 4° H: 19 L: 8 Wind: NW 15-20 G 25
Tuesday: Partly sunny. H: 23 L: 13 Wind: w 10
Frozen Soil: Trail conditions often change rapidly in late fall/early winter. As Steve from the Theo crew points out:
The ground isn't completely frozen under that snow at Theo. Late night/early morning it's pretty hard and cold but once the temps start to rise to near freezing the ground thaws a little. This makes it very vulnerable to damage that may not show until spring which will mean it will take us longer to get the trail open then.
On average, soil initially freezes around early December. After December 8th, the top few layers of soil are usually frozen solid and the snow can then be groomed to perfection.
And now MORC has a pair of these bad boys to get the job done. The Honda bikes are relatively new this season and will surely improve the fatbike experience.
That big blob of pink in this image indicates a total snowfall model forecast of 10 inches. The metro stays just south of the highest totals, measuring 6-8 inches by the end of the event Tuesday. Perfect conditions to test out the fatbike.
The forecast hasn't been easy with such a large snow gradient expected across the metro. As the National Weather Service Twin Cities points out:
HENNEPIN COUNTY COULD SEE TOTALS THAT RANGE FROM CLOSE TO A FOOT IN THE FAR NORTH TO 1 TO 2 INCHES IN THE FAR SOUTH.
The winter storms ends Tuesday but the bitter cold only just begins. Temperatures stay a good 20 degrees below average through the weekend.
Tuesday: Snow ends midday, breezy. H: 26 Wind: NE 10-15 G 20
Tuesday Night: Cloudy. L: 10
Wednesday: Cloudy. H: 25 L: 9 Wind: NW 10-15
Thursday: Cloudy, cold, snow showers. H: 23 L: 8 Wind: NW 5-10
Friday: Sunny, lighter wind. H: 20 L: 7 Wind: NW 5
Saturday: Partly cloudy. H: 23 L: 10 Wind: W 5
Sunday: Cloudy, cold. H: 18 L: 9 Wind: SW 5-10
While this is the first big cold wave, the timing is not too unusual.
November 11 is the average first day with a high temperature 32 degree or below. The arctic air will be right on schedule next week.
Sunday is the first annual MORC Gala. Expect light snow early Sunday morning, followed by a break of dry weather during the afternoon. Little to no accumulation expected.
There is a potential of a "plowable" snow, however, in southern Minnesota Monday. A more northern storm track could put the metro in the accumulating snow...can't rule out a few inches of slush Monday night in the southern metro.
Saturday: Partly cloudy, windy. H: 38 Wind: NW 10-20 G 30
Saturday Night: Partly cloudy. L: 29
Sunday: Cloudy. Snow stays south. H: 37 L: 26 Wind: NW 10-15 G 20
Monday: Cloudy, lighter wind. H: 34 L: 25 Wind: NE 2-4
Tuesday: Partly cloudy, cold. H: 30 L: 19 Wind: NE 5-10
Wednesday: Cold sunshine. H: 31 L: 22 Wind: NW 4
MORC Gala on Sunday!: Free Surly beer, live music from The Lost Wheels, live and silent auctions, guest speakers including Paul Douglas and Rebecca Rusch. Come out and join in celebrating the trails we love to ride!
Have you put the snow tires on the car yet? I'm making an appointment asap...gotta get it done before the rush. Panic (and packed car mechanic shops) usually happen at the sight of the first snowflakes.
A rain/snow mix is expected Wednesday as a strengthening clipper passes through. Maybe a few inches in spots? Thursday will be the coldest day for riding with wind chills in the low 30s. Another clipper Friday could bring more of the same.
Monday: Rain showers. Less than 0.50" H: 55 Wind: W 5-10
Monday Night: Clearing after midnight. L: 39
Tuesday: Sunny. H: 50 L :36 Wind: W 10
Wednesday: Rain and snow showers. H: 45 L: 33 Wind: SE 5-10
Thursday: Cold and windy. H: 40 L: 27 Wind: NW 15-20
Friday: Increasing clouds. Evening rain/snow showers. H: 42 L: 36 Wind: S 10
20th Anniversary Gala: Less than one week away from the celebration of our bike community and trails we love. Be sure to purchase your tickets before Friday! bit.ly/morcGALA
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story