The wettest Halloween in Minneapolis/St. Paul was 0.85" of rain in 1991. And who can forget the 1991 Halloween Blizzard? This Halloween expect a passing rain shower with temperatures just cool enough to warrant a light jacket for the kids. The heavy rain of Tuesday night may be over but a series of fronts will occasionally bring the area more showers into the weekend. Expect periodic and temporary trail closures.
We've had a wet year. In the graph above the precipitation total in the Twin Cities for the 1-year period 10/19/15 - 10/18/16 has been the third wettest on record. Waseca has already set a new annual record of 50.59" for the year, according to Mark Seeley University of Minnesota Extension Climatologist . The Twin Cities could end up having one of the top 10 wettest years on record if trends continue.
And the 6-10 Day Outlook indicates a warm and wet start to November.
A La Nina Watch has now been issued. NOAA predicts a 70% chance of La Nina developing this fall and a 55% chance of it persisting into winter.
Cooler than normal water in the Pacific Ocean can mean a cold winter in Minnesota. My hunch is that La Nina conditions will begin to fade throughout winter so the impact won't be as great.
The three images below show a temperature departure from normal forecast for meteorological winter (December, January, February). While December does look warmer than average, this warm bias begins to fade slightly by January only to beef back up again in February.
A warming trend continues through next week. More Pacific air in origin is streaming over Minnesota helping to deflect any cold, Canadian air north of the state. We have yet to see a hard freeze this season.
The singletrack is drying out. No big precipitation events for the metro anytime soon. And that's just fine. The precipitation since the beginning of summer is already above average as we make a run for one of the top wettest years on record.
Precious little rain in the forecast this week. Only light showers early Wednesday morning. This bodes well for riding dirt and for farmers working in the field for harvest. The end to the growing season is near, however, as a widespread frost and/or freeze is anticipated Thursday morning.
Thunderstorms (and heavier rain) may return by the weekend and early next week. This will only help 2016 in what should be one of the wettest years on record. So far the Twin Cities have recorded 33.57" of precipitation this year. Not top ten wettest yet, but close. Wettest years ever? 40.15" in 1911.
Cycling Paths That Sparkle
Imagine this, illuminating bike paths around Lake Calhoun on a busy Saturday evening in summer. A team in northern Poland designed paved pathways with synthetic material that can produce a glowing light for about 10 hours after absorbing a day's worth of solar radiation.
Tough week for the fall harvest here in Minnesota. Another shot of rain Thursday will leave the farm fields too wet to do work...for now. Dry air returns Friday along with the coldest air yet this season. Expect some chilly mornings this weekend. Our first widespread frost or freeze is likely, especially Saturday morning with lows in the mid 30s.
While this weekend will be cool temperatures will rise back to normal levels by next week. In addition, very little rain will fall through mid October. Seems to be some of the best riding weather next week as the fall foliage nears peak color.
Climatological data tells us that the first measurable snow in Minnesota is right around the corner. October 16 is the historical first date of snow in Minneapolis/St. Paul. In the map below each colored dot indicates the date by which there is a 50% of at least 0.1" of snow accumulation.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story