The sight of snowflakes on Wednesday made fatbikers giddy with joy. No snow, but 60s in the forecast into early November. Maybe it will be a mild transition into the cold abyss afterall.
In comparison to other years, this Halloween with be tame. Partly cloudy, maybe a stray sprinkle north of I-94, but no steady rain or snow for trick-or-treat time.
As a highly amplified weather pattern develops across the county, Minnesota will be locked underneath the main storm track. This may lead to above normal precipitation the next 6 to 10 days out.
Five years ago this week an incredibly strong storm equivalent of a category 3 hurricane lashed out over the Great Lakes region. Minnesota experienced high winds for two straight days in addition to record-setting rain. Storms like this one in 2010 are common in October. A similar (albeit weaker) storm has deepened just to our east this week.
Mid-week Rain Parts of Hurricane Patricia that left Texas and Louisiana waterlogged begin to drift into the Ohio Valley. This storm joins forces with upper level energy to produce an expansive wind and rain storm over the Great Lakes. Heaviest rain stays east into Wednesday night with the Twin Cities picking up a solid half inch.
Trick-or-Treat No random Halloween blizzards this year for Minnesota. Clear and cool for those little ghosts and goblins.
Settling the Dust. Rain totals topping an inch over northwestern Minnesota will definitely offset the deficits that we have seen since September.
We are currently in the midst of the 4th driest October in statewide history since 1895. Many areas have received less than a quarter of an inch of rain over the past 15 days.
Last measurable rain in the Twin Cities was October 8th, with some parts of southwestern MN not seeing a drop since late September.
We will get much needed moisture on Friday. Temperatures remain seasonable through the weekend. No significant cool downs (or snow for that matter) in the foreseeable future.
October tends to be a very changeable month here in Minnesota. Cold air from the north continuously battles warm air in the south. The cool air may win out this weekend but we go from widespread freeze to highs in the 70s Monday. And now with El Nino conditions this winter, a trend toward above normal temperature may be the rule for the next few months.
October 8 is the average first fall day with highs below 50 degrees. Last time we stayed in the 40s during the day was back in May.
Fall color is at peak across the Twin Cities! Theodore Wirth Singletrack is urging folks to come out and help rake leaves. This helps the trail to dry out faster in the spring.
Winter Outlook The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has just released their 2015-2016 winter outlook. Minnesota is likely to be drier and warmer than normal during the winter months...typical outlook considering the current El Nino conditions in the eastern Pacific Ocean.
On Sunday, we experienced some of the hottest weather the area has ever seen this late in the season. Numerous record highs were either tied or broken, especially across western Minnesota where highs were well into the 90s.
The current El Nino may have something to do with the recent record heat. From the National Weather Service Twin Cities:
TAKING A LOOK AT THE LATEST EL NINO AND HOW PREVIOUS YEARS OF STRONG EL NINO/S HAVE WITH THE MEAN WEATHER PATTERN...IT DOES SUPPORT THE SCENARIO OF AT LEAST A WARM OCTOBER AND POSSIBLY INTO THE EARLY PART OF NOVEMBER. SOME OF THE RECORD HIGHS FOR [MONDAY] WERE SET BACK WHEN THERE WAS A STRONG EL NINO IN 1997-98 IN WESTERN MN WHERE TEMPS ROSE INTO THE 90S [MONAY].
Northern Canada has been receiving measureable snow over the past several weeks. Waves of cooler air will occasionally filter down into Minnesota as an upper level low remains stationary over the Hudson Bay. Cooler conditions are favored through the end of the month with even a little snow for the Iron Range. After all, 80s and 90s are very hard to come by in late October.
Also fall foliage likely to be near peak by the end of the week!
Record warmth is expected across the state on Sunday. The Twin Cities could surpass 80 degrees, the record being 84F set back in 1930. During a typical year, our area will see at least one 80 degree day in October. Great cycling weather continues with a dry stretch through next week.
The last time we saw 80F in October was in 2011 when the thermometer reached at or above 80 degrees eight times!
Record high temperatures go back to the 1930's...many being tied or broken Sunday afternoon.
Dusty Trails: Dry weather hasn't been too good to the soil. Abnormally dry drought conditions are now expanding across portions of Minnesota. Take a look at the difference in drought last week compared to this week:
Strong winds are likely to develop on Monday in the wake of a cool front. Winds could gust over 30 mph at times. This could mean trail clean up of limbs and branches early next week.
September 2015 was one of the warmest on record. The warmth spills over into October with a few 80 this weekend. Showers Thursday morning settle the dust on the trails, otherwise quiet weather continues for Minnesota. Count our blessings...South Carolina is recovering from a 1-in-1,000 year flooding event.
Showers begin to spread into central Minnesota Wednesday night. We will likely wake up to rain Thursday morning. Amounts stay under a half inch in most areas. COGGS in Duluth could pick up a healthy 1 inch.
Fall color is just about at peak across northern Minnesota and past peak across the northwestern part of the state.
El Nino and different seasonal outcomes: With a strong El Nino developing in the Pacific many are wondering what kind of winter weather is ahead. The truth is seasonal weather trends can be difficult to discern from just El Nino alone. Many other factors, in addition to El Nino, impact seasonal outcomes. In other words, "El Nino is like a bad bartender"...you don't always get what you want. ARTICLE:http://1.usa.gov/1KZCCI0
Our nation's weather is in a holding pattern. Weather systems are not moving that quickly from west to east across the country. Minnesota just so happens to be underneath brilliant high pressure. This will keep the sun around throughout the weekend. The air will still feel cool in the shade but rather seasonable temperatures otherwise.
Both rainfall and temperatures trended above normal during September 2015. Odds favor continued warmer yet drier conditions during the month of October.
The MORC Masquerade Ball
Luck is on our side. For the 2nd Annual MORC Gala the weather will cooperate. The sun will be shining with temps in the 60s. Perfect for a masquerade ball!
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story