The Halloween Blizzard of 1991 is hard to forget. Up to 10 inches of snow fell in the metro that All Hallows Eve...but the snow didn't stop then. Snow continued through November 2 and totaled a whopping 28.4" in the Twin Cities and 36.9" in Duluth!
No blizzard déjà vu this year. Thankfully. But a mid week rain event could leave the trails a little soggy heading into the weekend. Be sure to double check the trail conditions.
Wednesday: Cloudy, rain begins in the evening. H: 55 Wind: ESE 5-10
Wednesday Night: Rain, heavy at times. Clap of thunder? L: 45
Thursday: Drizzle and snow flurries, blustery. H: 48 L: 37 Wind: W 1--15
Friday: Partly sunny, breezy. H: 49 L: 33 Wind: WNW 10-15
Saturday: Dry. Mostly sunny. H: 50 L: 35 Wind: NW 10
Sunday: Sunny, slightly warmer. H: 54 L: 38 Wind: SE 10-15
Over a half inch of rain could fall Wednesday night. The Weather Prediction Center (a branch of the National Weather Service) prints out 0.86" by the end of this week. Luckily, the wind will stay elevated through the weekend which should help to speed up the drying process...depending on leaf coverage.
After a lukewarm Friday, the flood gates of cold, Canadian air open back up to keep conditions cool through the weekend. Next week looks rather active as two storms are poised to impact Minnesota. The first storm arrives Tuesday and brings the possibility of accumulating snow to southern Minnesota. The second storm will be warmer and arrives on Halloween (Thursday) to bring mainly rain to the metro.
Saturday: Blustery north wind. H: 45 Wind: NW 15-20
Saturday Night: Mostly clear. Wind subsides. L: 30 Wind: NW 5-10
Sunday: A bit warmer for the Season Championship. H: 53 L: 32 Wind: SW 5-10
Monday: A dry day. H: 45 L: 32 Wind: NE 5-10
Tuesday: Rain, snow mix begins to spread across s'rn MN. Minor snow accum ~1" H: 39 L: 31 Wind: NE 10-15
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy, break in between storms. H: 44 L: 34 Wind: NE 5-10
Thursday: A cold, windy rain ending in light snow Friday morning. H: 49 L: 34 Wind: W 10
Friday: Cloudy and getting colder. H: 44 L: 30 Wind: NW 5-10
Predicting the weather is not an exact science...it never will be. While our computer models do a pretty damn good job at showing the future, they will never, ever be able to precisely mimic our atmosphere.
Computer models differ in which initial observation and equations they use. For example, the European Center for Medium range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) relies heavily on cloud cover observations. The ECMWF accurately predicted Hurricane Sandy a week in advance, so I tend to lean more towards this model.
A meteorologist likes to see models agree. This gives us a high confidence forecast. Unfortunately they don't always agree, like in Tuesday's situation. The ECMWF model (lower) shows a storm track further south, thus giving southern MN more snow potential.
Either way, the area will see snow but how much snow is still a little fuzzy.
The coldest air since early May has arrived! Temps dipped into the 20's Tuesday morning thus marking the first hard freeze of the season. Plants have now temporarily halted growth until Spring 2014.
An extended period of dry yet cooler-than-average conditions are expected as northwest flow dominates our weather this week. Southerly winds begin to develop over the weekend which will help to moderate temperatures.
Wednesday: Mostly cloudy. H: 43° (Normal: 52°) Wind: WNW 2-4
Wednesday Night: Cloudy. L: 26° Wind: NW 5-10
Thursday: Partly sunny. H: 44° L: 28° Wind: NW 10-15
Friday: Subtle warming trend begins. Partly sunny. H: 48° L: 32° Wind: SW 10-15
Saturday: Mostly cloudy. H: 46° L: 35° Wind: NW 10-15
Sunday: Partly sunny. Much warmer! H: 53° L: 37° Wind: S 10-15
While the first flakes of the season were spotted in the Twin Cities no measurable snow was reported in the metro. Central Minnesota, however, had a slushy snow accumulation of 1-2 inches. The band-aid has officially been ripped off!
Weather computer models hint at a storm developing in the central U.S. the middle of next week. This is still a ways out but, there is a possibility of this storm affecting the Midwest...maybe in the form of snow. As models converge on one solution, check back for an update late this week.
For a girl who loves the warmth of summer, I've been dreading forecasting the first snow of the season. Don't get me wrong, I love riding fat bikes just as much as the next person but...is it too early for snow?
A Saskatchewan Screamer (variation of an Alberta Clipper that originates over the Canadian province Saskatchewan ) dives into Minnesota early next week. The Twin Cities will see flakes but accumulating snow?...we'll leave that to northern Minnesota.
Also the coldest air of the season arrives...and stays for the next 2 weeks. Our fair weather honeymoon is over!
Saturday: Flurries early AM, no accumulation. PM sprinkles. H: 46° Wind: NW 10-15
Saturday Night: Brief clearing and the first freeze. L: 31° Wind:
Sunday: Cloudy. AM rain/snow mix. Afternoon light rain. H: 49° L: 33° Wind: W 10-15
Monday: Isolated drizzle/flurries. No accumulation. H: 41° L: 28° Wind: NW 10-15
Tuesday: Partly sunny. Colder than average. H: 44° L: 31° Wind: NW 10
Wednesday: Partly sunny. H: 47° L: 34° Wind: SW 5-10
If you're itching to get the fat bikes into some snow, you gotta head up north. Total snow accumulations across the Iron Range by Tuesday afternoon could be 3-5 inches. Roads will be just wet but a slushy accumulation likely on the dirt.
For the record, the average first snowfall across Minnesota usually occurs early to mid November.
After a weekend of fall biking at its finest, our trails get ready for a heavy rain beating Monday through Wednesday of next week. Much cooler (highs in the 50s) conditions linger through next week.
Monday: Rain begins to increase throughout afternoon. H: 59° Wind: E 10
Monday Night: Rain showers. L: 45° Wind: SE 5
Tuesday: Rain continues, breezy. H: 55° L: 41° Wind: NW 10-15
Wednesday: Rain ends during the morning. H: 56° L: 40° Wind: SW 5-10
Thursday: Partly cloudy, seasonably cool. H: 58° L: 40° Wind: WNW 10
Friday: Partly sunny, dry. H: 57° L: 37° Wind: NW 10-15
Over 2 inches of rain is likely across southwestern Minnesota Monday-Wednesday. The metro will likely pick up on an inch or less. Snow melt and heavy rain over western South Dakota will likely result in flooding.
Usually when Alaska is warm, Minnesota is cold. The 8-14 Day Temperature Outlook shows the Midwest experiencing cooler than average conditions October 19-25. This cooler weather will likely linger into the MN High School Mountain Bike League Season Championship!
Not much trail riding went down this past weekend but many hit the pavement, braving the elements, to get their fix. Over the past few days we've had a total of 1.28", the normal value is 0.58" by this time of the month. Trails are saturated...but not for long.
Dry, warm, and breezy conditions this week will help to rapidly firm up the trails. Next rain will be on Friday afternoon which looks to be rather light. Cooler, yet more normal temperatures are on tap for the weekend.
Tuesday: Sunny and a bit windy. H: 77° Wind: S 15-20 G 30
Tuesday Night: Mostly clear. Breezy. L: 55° Wind: S 10
Wednesday: Partly cloudy. H: 75° L: 53° Wind: S 10
Thursday: Mostly sunny. H: 74° L: 55° Wind: SE 10 G 15
Friday: Increasing clouds & wind. PM thunderstorms. H: 74° L: 55° Wind: SE 10-20
Saturday: Clearing, breezy. H: 66° L: 44° Wind: SE 10-15 G 20
Sunday: Sunny, wind subsides. Dry and cooler. H: 61° L: 47° Wind: NW 5-10
The healthy rains over the weekend are likely to decrease the drought conditions across the state. Parts of southeastern Minnesota received 3"-5" of rain the past 7 days. The next drought update comes out this Thursday and will probably show a decrease in the severe to moderate drought across southern Minnesota.
Fall color is now past its peak in the Boundary Water but the leaves are just getting started in the metro. Fall foliage typically peaks October 1-17 in northern MN and October 5-21 in the southern half of the state.
Those participating in the High School Mountain Bike League and the Filthy 50 this weekend will be treated to fall color at its finest across the Midwest!
Talk about drought-busting rains! Our trails, statewide, have received between 1-3 inches of rain this week...and more rain is on the way this weekend. In fact, conditions might get cold enough early Sunday morning for a little graupel aka snow pellets!
Saturday: Abrupt end to rain early, remaining cloudy. H: 64° Wind: SE 5
Saturday Night: Light, cold rain increases. L: 44° Wind: N 5-10
Sunday: Cloudy, cool, drizzle. Yuck. H: 55° L: 42° Wind: NW 10
Monday: Sunny and seasonable. H: 64° L: 50° Wind: N 5-10
Tuesday: Sunny, warming up. H: 71° L: 54° Wind: SE 5-10
Wednesday: Partly sunny. H: 74° L: 56° Wind: S 10
This is our first dynamic, deep, low pressure storm of the season. This thing has brought blizzard conditions to the Black Hills of South Dakota, tornadic supercell storms in Iowa, and heavy rains across Minnesota. Abundant moisture straight from the Gulf of Mexico has aided in the big rain totals across our state.
Temperatures aloft Sunday morning (white color in the map above) show conditions will be below freezing...cold enough to support snow. BUT with a lack of any true arctic air with this system, it might be tough to get the flakes to fly. Still small hail, snow pellets aka graupel could fall outside the city limits early Sunday morning....just sayin'.
Worst Bike-Motorist Intersections
The East Franklin Avenue and Cedar Avenue South intersection has reported 20 motorist-bicycle crashes between 2000-2010...the most out of any metro intersection. Check out the full list of intersections with the most crashes between bikes and vehicles in Minneapolis. Is your street on the list?
Many Minnesota locations experienced a warm September. In the Twin Cities, this past September was 5 degrees warmer than average with several days in the 90s earlier in the month.
As often is the case in October, however, the cold air over the arctic begins to dislodge and trek southward into the lower 48 states. While October can still bring very pleasant biking weather (especially early in the month) the battle between warm vs. cold gets played out more often.
One such battle takes place this weekend. By Sunday, high temperatures will be in the 50s for the first time since June 6 and snow begins to show it's face awfully close to Minnesota's international boarder.
Wednesday: Increasing clouds. H: 76° Wind: SE 10
Wednesday Night: Rain arrives. L: 58° Wind: SE 5-10
Thursday: Showers and thunderstorms. Cooler. H: 66° L: 54° Wind: NE 10-15
Friday: Mostly cloudy, showers. Windy. H: 65° L: 54° Wind: NE 15 G 20
Saturday: Getting colder throughout the day. H: 60° L: 43° Wind: NE 15 G 25
Sunday: Gradual clearing, wind subsides. Much cooler. H: 56° L: 45° Wind: N 10
The wind begins to pick up Friday into Saturday as a strengthening low pressure moves over Minnesota. The blue color on the map above indicates a cold pool of air rushing southward out of Canada. This is how we go from 70s to 50s just within a few days.
Snow also gets perilously close the Minnesota Sunday morning. Notice the pink/blue blobs over South Dakota and Winnipeg, Canada...that could be accumulating snow! Maybe even a dusting over northern Minnesota as the temps dip into the 30s Saturday night.
Snow in early October for northern MN isn't too unusual. The average first snowfall in north central Minnesota typically occurs in October, whereas snow in the metro is more likely around mid-late November.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story