A refreshing air mass remains through the weekend. Slim chance of storms on our area trails Saturday night. Hint of 70s late next week!
Near-record rain of over 1 inch fell across the Twin Cities Tuesday morning. The trails will dry out quickly, however, with the arrival of cool, Canadian air late this week. With dewpoints in the 50s and a gusty northwest wind, the evaporation rates will stay elevated. Our stellar summer weather continues with 70s in the forecast next week!
The atmosphere is ripe and ready to produce severe weather. Tuesday afternoon, with a constant stream of moisture from the Gulf encountering an approaching cold front, dangerous storms are likely to develop. A similar atmospheric setup on June 17 2010 produced the biggest outbreak of tornadoes across Minnesota. Stay weather alert!
Tree damage along our area trails in a possibility. On the plus side, lower heat and humidity returns the rest of this week. The drier air will help increase evaporation rates and firm up the trails faster!
Drier weather Saturday gives way for more thunderstorms early next week. We could see another wind storm event Monday night. Subtle heat and humidity through Tuesday before free A/C arrives.
While the heat index approaches 90 degrees each afternoon through Tuesday, the most intense heat (100+ degree heat index) stays well south of Minnesota.
Don't sweat the cold fronts
For our mountain biking neighbors across the Pacific Northwest, the possibility of a major earthquake is inevitable. The question is when.
Aside from the damaging wind storms Friday night, this summer has been relatively tame. The all-new Summer Glory Index (SGI) by the MN State Climatologist Office places this summer the 3rd nicest since 1903. Only 1922 and 2008 were better summers. The SGI takes into account temperature, dew point, and precipitation.
Fierce winds downed tons of trees over our area trails Friday night. A confirmed EF-1 tornado with winds up to 105 mph occurred in Watertown, just west of the metro.
Thunderstorms on Monday could once again go severe, especially across extreme southeastern Minnesota. Otherwise quiet conditions early next week turn more active and warmer late in the week.
Not surprisingly, the middle of July in our hottest time of the year on average. Right on cue, high heat and humidity on Saturday will make it feel more like 100 degrees. Very uncomfortable on the bike despite the breeze.
When conditions get this hot and humid, the evaporation of sweat off your skin is reduced such that the body can't readily cool itself. The National Weather Service in the Twin Cities recommends limiting the duration of outdoor activities, like cycling, to two hours or less.
Thunderstorms are likely Friday night and again into Saturday afternoon. Some could be severe on Saturday. Be weather alert! Trail openings questionable in areas that receive a good downpour.
Intense lightning and over 2 inches of rain accompanied the cluster of storms through the Twin Cities Monday morning. The storm cluster, also known as a mesoscale convective system (MCS), went on to travel over 700 miles into Kentucky where it continued to produce severe weather.
MORC trails got quite the soaking with 2-3 inches of rain reported across the metro. Downed tree limbs were also common across our singletrack.
After a brief break in the high heat/humidity, temperatures rebound into the 90s this weekend with an increased chance of thunderstorms.
Enjoy the low humidity while it lasts! Dewpoints surge into the 60s and 70s this weekend making cycling in that thick air feel slightly uncomfortable. With the added moisture and a stalling warm front, thunderstorms will also increase into the weekend. Our dry days are numbered...
Total rainfall in the Twin Cities metro will likely be around 1 inch.
Interestingly enough Charles Fisk, a Twin Cities weather historian, put together a graph that depicts the time of day in which thunderstorms are most likely to occur in the Twin Cities. He discovered that thunderstorms are more likely over the metro during the late evening and early morning hours. Indeed, nocturnal thunderstorms are quite common across the Midwest during summer.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story