Here's a sobering fact: 85% of our total summer (June, July & August) moisture has all fallen this month. Hope you were able to capitalize on the rare trail openings late his week because the threat for more heavy rain will shatter all chances of extended trail openings.
Slow-Moving Storms: As the leading edge of warm, mosit air lifts into Minnesota from the Gulf, instability begins to increase. Numerous thunderstorms are expected this weekend with rainfall rates nearing 1-2 inches per hour.
Here's the kicker: Unlike the last heavy rain event, this weekend's rain won't target one particular area. The heavy rain will be more spread out which may help easy the risk of excessive flooding.
Severe Storm Threat: A break in the storms with a little sun on Sunday could help really destabilize the atmosphere. Supercell storms capable of producing large hail and tornadoes could be a threat. Your Sunday bike stroll may have to be put on hold.
Saturday: Scattered thunderstorms, some severe. H: 82 Wind: SE 10-15
Saturday Night: Thunderstorms. L: 71
Sunday: Brief break, severe storms fire late PM. H: 86 L: 68 Wind: SW 10
Monday: Non-severe storms. H: 82 L: 65 Wind: SW 10-15
Tuesday: Isolated thunder. H: 75 L: 57 Wind: NW 10-15
Wednesday: Sunny, cooler. H: 74 L: 58 Wind: NW 10
::Sigh:: That Saturday sun was nice while it lasted. Rain rears its ugly head back into the forecast this week. The unusually wet weather pattern continues and trails will be affected.
Monday: Morning rain, mostly cloudy. H: 82 Wind: W 5-10
Monday Night: Dry. L: 64
Tuesday: Thunderstorms. H: 81 L: 62 Wind: NW 5-10
Wednesday: Cloudy, more rain. H: 76 L: 62 Wind: NE 2
Thursday: Thunderstorms. H: 77 L: 64 Wind: NE 2-4
Friday: Showers and thunderstorms. H: 82 L: 68 Wind: SE 10
Heavy rains of biblical proportion impacted all of our metro trails on Thursday. Many sites received a half a year's worth of rain in just 2 months. Here are some of the stats from Thursday's record-setting rain:
So, what led to this tropical deluge? Blame storm training. Thunderstorms continuously building back on themselves over the same areas, much like train cars on a railroad track.
There was also an incredible amount of lightning over Minnesota. Take notice to how green the grass and trees will look. Turns out all this greenery is not only because of the rain... but lightning plays a role as well!
To track real-time lightning strikes check out LightningMaps.org.
Chance of rain lingers into next week but a lack of any deep moisture will keep the threat of flooding rain low.
Saturday: Isolated thunder, especially western MN. H: 87 Wind: SW 10-15
Saturday Night: Thunderstorms. L: 70
Sunday: Morning thunder, afternoon sun. H: 83 L: 64 Wind: S 2
Monday: A daytime thunderstorm. H: 79 L: 62 Wind: NW 5-10
Tuesday: Thundershower. H: 74 L: 55 Wind: NW 10
Wednesday: Thunderstorm. H: 73 L: 57 Wind: NW 5
Good news...drier than average conditions return into early July. Hallelujah!
June is the wettest, most severe month of the year in Minnesota. the weather pattern has literally become stuck. Weather systems aren't moving that quickly from west to east and as a result the rain is really beginning to pile up. Our metro trails have received over 6 inches of rain this month, that's more than 2 inches above normal. If this rainy trend continues, many areas could end up with one of the wettest Junes on record. Good grief.
Wednesday: Morning rain, mostly cloudy. Afternoon sun. H: 86 Wind: E 10
Wednesday Night: Thunderstorms. L: 70
Thursday: Morning rain, storm redevelopment during afternoon and for Thursday Night Lights. H: 86 L: 67 Wind: SE 10-15
Friday: Partly sunny. Late-day, isolated thunder. H: 87 L: 66 Wind: SW 10
Saturday: Partly sunny. H: 84 L: 63 Wind: W 10
Sunday: Becoming cloudy, an isolated shower. H: 77 L: 61 Wind: NW 7
Rest for the Weary: This persistent, wet weather pattern will eventually break. The 8-14 Day Precipitation Outlook shows a trend towards drier than average conditions. Exactly what our trails need.
MORC 20th Anniversary Gala
Indications from simulated model radar (below) show evidence of a bow echo or possible derecho pushing across the metro Monday evening. These storms are capable of damaging straight-line winds. Farther south, a few rotating thunderstorms may spawn tornadoes from southern Minnesota into northern Iowa by evening. Future trail clean-up of downed branches/debris likely.
Consecutive days worthy of slaying dry singletrack have been hard to come by lately. While one day is dry, the next is wet.
If you haven't noticed, this spring has been unusually soggy...one of the top wettest on record in some areas. No-wake zones have been declared for the St. Croix River and Lake Minnetonka. What's even more unusual? Ice still lingers on Lake Superior!
Get your sump pumps ready. Another widespread, heavy rain event this weekend.
Friday: Sunny. Comfortable. Best day for riding. H: 74 Wind: W 2-4
Friday Night: Increasing clouds. L: 60
Saturday: Thunderstorms. H: 77 L: 64 Wind: SE 10-15
Sunday: T-storms, mainly before Noon. H: 81 L: 63 Wind: SW 10
Monday: Sunny. H: 81 L: 64 Wind: NW 5-10
Tuesday: Party sunny, isolated storms. H: 84 L: 64 Wind: SE 10
Minnesota's tornado count this year stands at 5 preliminary reports. Below is an interesting look at tornado reports based on longitude. Comes as no surprise that the majority of tornadoes occur over the Central Plains aka Tornado Alley.
No wonder many bike paths along Minnehaha Creek are inundated by flood waters-the area received over 3 inches of rainfall since May 31. Even Lake Minnetonka has an emergency high water ordinance in effect.
The Twin Cities now holds the 2nd all time rainiest start to the year at 16.86 inches...and counting.
It should come as no surprise that we ended up with record rain over the weekend. By early Sunday morning 2.37" of rain fell which surpassed the old record of 2.16" in 1944. Heck, Granite Ledge reported 5.46" of rain over the three-day period.
A combination of factors led to this heavy rain event. Precipitable water values (total water suspended within a column of air that extends from the surface to top of the atmosphere) were near the 95th percentile for the end of May. Also, the winds aloft began to increase causing storms to tilt (wind shear) with height. This shear was able to separate the updraft from the downdraft and with stronger "lift" in the atmosphere caused precipitation loading within the thunderstorms.
This heavy rain will likely become the norm. The frequency of days with heavy rain is projected to increase which could result in more flooding of our trail system, especially if proper trail building techniques are not practiced.
The U.S. National Climate Assessment came out earlier in May which aims to provide insight into the current status and impacts of climate change on the U.S. This report breaks down the potential climate change impacts on the Midwest in an easy to understand format. Some of the changes listed include a longer growing season, more intense heat waves and frequent heavy rain events.
The threat for heavy rain has now ended and drier air moves in this week. Despite a few isolated rumbles on Wednesday, the week looks fairly dry. Expect slightly cooler conditions for the upcoming weekend.
Tuesday: Scattered clouds. Low dewpoints (50s) H: 78 Wind: W 10
Tuesday Night: Isolated thunder L: 59
Wednesday: Isolated thunder. H: 72 L: 58 Wind: E 2-4
Thursday: Sunny. H: 78 L: 59 Wind: S 5-10
Friday: Sunny. H: 81 L: 61 Wind: SW 4
Saturday: Partly sunny. H: 78 L: 64 Wind: SE 2-4
Sunday: Thunderstorms. H: 73 L: 65 Wind: W 10-15
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story