Optimal riding weather through the weekend as cool, dry air floods in from Canada. If only the rain would stay away. A few strong storms could develop on Friday as a sharp surface low and its associated fronts pass over Minnesota. This feature will result in lingering light rain Saturday and Sunday. Some areas could even stay in the 60s! Not bad for a time of year when 90-degree heat and high humidity are possible. This year we have an April feel in June.
Surface Map Friday
A surface low is to track across Minnesota on Friday. High enough instability in the atmosphere could create severe thunderstorms. Be on alert if you plan to ride Friday afternoon.
Expect seasonal highs and lows through the first full week in June. In addition, a dry stretch of weather is favored. The 6-10 day precipitation outlook shows a high probability of receiving below normal precipitation. An outlook like this bodes well for off-road riding!
Memorial Day Weekend won't be a total washout. Occasional thunderstorms can be expected through the middle of next week, but there will also be some dry periods as well. Best chance for rain will be Saturday and then again Monday night into Wednesday. An isolated severe thunderstorm cannot be ruled out otherwise locally heavy rain will be a primary threat. Luckily we have Sunday and Memorial Day Monday remaining mostly dry.
Twin Cities will receive over an inch of rain by Memorial Day. Prior to this weekend the area rainfall was below normal. Will heavy rain at times this weekend, the month will likely end near normal if not slightly above normal with precipitation. Hard to believe that will all the rain recently that the latest drought monitor has put northern/western Minnesota within abnormally dry conditions.
Temperatures remain about 5-10 degrees above normal in the short-term forecast otherwise remaining rather steady over the next 16 days. Interestingly enough, cities that have reached 90 degrees in 2016 include Minneapolis, La Crosse, and Hartford, CT. Those that have not: Birmingham, Atlanta, and Charlotte.
A summer-like weather pattern has developed with occasional thunderstorms through next week. A total of 2-3 inches of rain could fall across our metro trails between now and Memorial Day. The two wettest days will be Wednesday and Saturday. Memorial Day Monday looks to be one of the drier days. Thank goodness for that!
This rain is much needed. The Twin Cities went nearly ten days without any measurable precipitation. Warm, windy and dry weather had enhanced the wildfire potential. In addition, the monthly rainfall has been trending well below normal. But over two inches of rain is in the forecast by Memorial Day which will surely help to end the month normal, if not above normal with rainfall.
This week marks the anniversary of the tornado that tore through Theodore Wirth singletrack. Winds with this twister topped 110 mph and had a path length of 14 miles. Damage from this tornado can still be seen throughout the central Glenwood section of the Theodore Wirth trail.
Wow. This just might be the best weather of the year. Sunshine, low humidity, and no mosquitoes (yet). Dry weather continues through the weekend. Soak up the rays while you can, showers and storms return next week.
Our first taste of summer humidity hits Monday. Dewpoints surge into the 60s, maybe even close to 70 degrees. This could make for a slightly more uncomfortable ride. Whenever the dewpoint temperatures gets above 60 degrees the evaporation process of water droplets off the skin is slowed and the body cannot readily cool itself.
Rain will likely hinder any off-road riding early next week anyways. Thunderstorms develop as a sharp cold front arrives from the Northwest. Strong southerly winds ahead of the front will transport the high dewpoint air and moisture into the Twin Cities. As a result, a few soggy days are in the offering next week. Bet on the trainer or pavement riding by then.
Rainfall next week
The lake water is still much, much colder than the air temperature...even though you may be tempted to take a dip this weekend! Under the clear sky, the visible satellite showed how the cool, stable air around the lakes prevented fair weather cumulus clouds from developing. A common sight to see this time of year.
The chill in the air is fading fast. Warmer air begins to expand into the Twin Cities as the jet stream noses north into Canada and keeps the cold air bottled up over the Hudson Bay. Any potential rainstorms will be displaced well south of the area. Expect a dry stretch of good off-road riding weather to continue well into the weekend!
The temperature outlook for May 21st through the 25th shows 70% probability of above normal temperatures across Minnesota and the upper Midwest. The warmer weather leading up to Memorial Day weekend will surely help speed up crop development across Minnesota. The colder air from this past weekend really put a halt on crop progress.
No rain this weekend but it will feel like October. Jackets are a good idea for those early morning rides as temperatures dip into the 30s. Protect sensitive outdoor plants Sunday morning as a frost & freeze develops. At least the lakes are ice free for the Minnesota fishing opener!
Rain returns early next week but 70s are roughly 8-9 days away. Leading into Memorial Day weekend temperatures are expected to be above normal across southern Minnesota.
Minnesota's severe weather season may have started off quiet but locations just to our south from Colorado to Kentucky have been impacted by dangerous storms. Baseballs-size hail in St. Louis and twisters in Colorado really puts our frosty weekend into perspective.
The northern lights put on a great show earlier this week. The aurora borealis results when electrons bombard the outer limits of our atmosphere. The Earth's magnetic field guides these electrons to form circles around the poles, and close to Minnesota at times. A new study now shows changes with the planet's magnetic field. This could impact the formation and location of future northern light events.
Gusty rain storms this week will help disperse any high concentrations of pollutants and result in better air quality. Heaviest rain to arrive Tuesday night with lingering showers into Thursday as two upper level lows slowly merge over the Midwest.
Trail closures this week can be expected. Rainfall totals by the end of the week can easily exceed one inch. Just think, this rain will prevent any additional Minnesota wildfires from starting...for now.
A daily chance of rain is expected next week as a series of slow-moving storms roll over the Midwest. Be on the lookout for any temporary trail closures.
When It Rains It Pours
Heavy rain and intense downpours are becoming more frequent in Minnesota. New analysis (by Climate Central) of 65 years of rainfall records at thousands of stations nationwide found that 40 of the lower 48 states have seen an overall increase in heavy downpours since 1950. The above graph shows the increase in number of heavy downpour events in Minnesota over an entire period from 1950 to 2014.
When the percent increase in the number of these downpours in the last decade (2005-2014) is compared to the 1950s (1950-1959) there is a slight decrease. Just another way of looking at the data. Either way, the number of intense precipitation events has been on the rise. This makes sustainable trail building practices even more important in a warming Minnesota climate.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story