There will be a major shift in the overall weather pattern next week as an expansive high pressure settles across the Central Plains. This allows for near-normal temperatures to start the week but for a warm up and above normal temperature to occur late in the week.
If you remember there was a time last week when the trails were dry...almost too dry. The words "dusty" and "sandy" were used to describe the trail conditions. Not this week. More like "water-logged" and "soggy".
Typical spring weather persists with a total of three rain events that will put a hold on any off-road riding this week. Most of MORC trails will pick up a solid inch or two of rain. But April showers do indeed bring May flowers, right? Right?! Afterall, the area is below normal with precipitation for the month and the year.
Hang in there. A dry stretch of weather looks to take over into early May. In fact, the long-range 6-10 day precipitation outlook hints at below normal precipitation April 30 through May 4.
A progressive, active weather pattern will send three storms across Minnesota between now and the weekend. The best day to get some miles in on the road? Friday! Depending on the track the third (and final) storm may pass south. At this point we'll keep rain in the forecast for Saturday.
The atmosphere will settle and dry weather returns for the first week in May. The 6-10 Day Precipitation Outlook has northern-central Minnesota with a 40-50 percent chance of receiving below normal precipitation. Be on the lookout for trail openings by then.
Sometimes the atmosphere gets stuck. A blocking pattern has developed with weather systems moving very slowly from west to east across the country. Spring showers develop this week as one such sluggish storm moves across the Midwest.
Despite a daily chance of rain this week rainfall totals will likely say under a half inch. While clouds may slow the evaporation process unseasonably warm air could speed it up. Be sure to check the current trail conditions page for updates.
Hazy smoke blanketed the city skyline on Thursday. This smoke was from wildfires in Kansas and Nebraska that traveled on southerly winds to Minnesota. A southeast wind Friday-Saturday will bring cleaner air to the Twin Cities with no air quality concerns for cyclists.
Warmer air and dry wind have helped to dry the dirt. For the first time since last autumn singletrack has opened on all MORC trails. Light rain/t-storms develop Sunday, not a wash out but may be enough to temporarily close the trails. Dry stretch of unseasonably mild weather follows next week.
70s Here to Stay
The 16-day temperature outlook indicates that warm weather lingers through the end of April. Spring has finally sprung across Minnesota!
The warm-up we've all been waiting for arrives this week. A major pattern shift sends the jet stream north into the Arctic allowing for a dry, mild stretch of weather to take over Minnesota. Prep the mountain bikes...I predict the majority of the trails will be fully open by the end of the week.
Severe Weather Season
Minnesota's primary severe weather season is from April 15 to September 17. During the course of a typical year the area averages about 30 days with hail/damaging winds and 14 days with tornadoes.
All the weather data accessible on 2WheelWeather is provided by Aeris Weather; a Minneapolis-based company. With severe weather season upon us mountain bikers need to stay alert for adverse weather while on the ride.
Aeris Weather has developed an app, Aeris Pulse, that uses your current GPS location to highlight where the weather threats are relative to you. This is my go-to app for receiving push notifications and in-app alerts when hazardous or severe weather approaches my current location. Push notifications detail everything from heavy rainfall to severe storms with hail, lightning, and even tornadoes.
The air outside has been feeling more like March than April. With cold high pressure overhead temperatures will continue to trend below normal through Saturday. A seasonable day Sunday is followed by a surge of cooler air Monday. But a blocking pattern nationwide will result in a dry, mild stretch of weather with a gradual warm up into the end of next week.
We are in luck, the pattern finally breaks. Looks like we have a string of sunny, dry days next week. This will likely help open area singletrack. Thankfully, the showers early Sunday will only amounts to less than a quarter of an inch.
Winter tries to make a comeback this week. Rain (and snow) this week will squash any hopes of extended trail openings. Expect occasional rain, that at times will mix with snow during the overnight hours. Temperatures trend colder than normal (normal high 52°) through the weekend.
Snow Forecast: The Arrowhead could receive as much as 5" of snow through Thursday. The Twin Cities won't see much, a brief dusting on the grassy surfaces Wednesday & Thursday mornings. The total accumulation Tuesday-Thursday may total 1" in the northern suburbs, but not all at once. Sporadic bursts of snow like this can't last long, especially with temperatures rising into the 40s during the day.
Gusty winds will help to counteract the precipitation this week. Winds could gust over 20 mph Wednesday-Thursday. Lighter winds returns with high pressure by Friday into the weekend.
Feels more like the start of March instead of April! A sharp warm-up Sunday is followed by light rain/snow mix by evening as a clipper races through. By the middle of next week some of the wettest weather in the short-term forecast will occur.
The biggest late-season snowfall ever in the Twin Cities was 3" on May 20, 1892. Goes to show we can still see snowflakes well into spring. Northern Minnesota stands to see a slushy 1"-3", but no accumulation for the metro.
A rather progressive weather pattern will send three cold fronts through the area between now and next week. This means a period of gusty winds to help dry out the trails. For those taking the road bike out for a spin Saturday you'll be battling a nasty north head wind. The wind will pick back up again with a wet storm midweek.
Summer brings warm afternoons perfect for biking, but the summer heat and humidity can also spark thunderstorms and severe weather. Be prepared for any type of adverse weather headed your way with Aeris Pulse.
NWS Twin Cities Weather Story